New Years Predictions

Prologue: 

Instead of resolutions this year, I've decided to make some predictions. I mean, why make resolutions when the future is so uncertain?  It seems pointless.
 
These predictions will unfold over the next four years in steps leading to an ultimate goal: the right-wing take over of America (RWTA). Since the purveyors of the RWTA were elected, it is hard to call it a coup, though that is ostensibly what it amounts to. Without Donald Trump (DT), this would not be a coup. It would just be just a normal swing to the right that would soon swing back to the left ad infinitum. But the DT factor is what makes this different. 

All predictions are based on things that DT has said. They are not just assumptions. To add some scientific credence to my predictions, I've included some carefully calculated probabilities. Ha, just kidding, I pulled the numbers out of thin air. DT taught me that.
 
Okay, let's roll.

Phase I predictions: Jan-Nov 2025

 
My first prediction is this: I think DT will attempt to take over before inauguration day. I mean, why wait? He has a mandate, after all, and Joe Biden is the lamest of lame ducks. This step is not really necessary to achieve the RWTA, but it just seems like something DT would do. Doesn't it?
 
DT attempts to take over before inauguration day. Probability: 0.40
 
Whenever he takes power, DT will try and sow as much chaos as possible on day one. Rounding up recent immigrants and throwing them in camps will be a good way to get this done, but he may have other ideas in his pants. Since the majority of the opposition is basically in a coma, it is unclear how much they will object. They may just lie around on their yoga mats with a distant look in their eyes as innocent people are dragged away. They will sit in their newly renovated kitchens drinking mushroom coffee from mugs that read: "the only thing necessary for evil to prevail is for good people to do nothing" in fuzzy pajama tops that read, "First they came for the immigrants.,." They’ll be wondering how they will get by without Maria.

Serious people who believe in the rule of law will attempt to stop DT using the court system, but DT won't care. He knows how to handle the courts.

There will be enough angry, thinking people to achieve an impressive presence in the streets, but this will not matter. In fact, it  will play right into DT's hands by exacerbating the sense of chaos. The right will recognize these people as the "lunatic left" and "the enemy from within". They will support their suppression by any means necessary. The remaining people on the left will be annoyed by the dissenters since they are disturbing their self-soothing and inner peace. Some people will just numb themselves by watching stupid TV and buying stupid stuff. Rich people will flee the country.
 
The true dissenters will not have anyone backing them up. 
 
Chaos begins on day 1. Probability: 0.80.
 
Next step is the Insurrection Act. The chaos gives DT an excuse to use it. He'll suppress any overt dissent by jailing people who dare to speak out. He'll deputize the various right wing militia groups that exist all over this country to get the job done. This will pit Americans against Americans, make it easier to label dissenters as "terrorists", sow further chaos, and silence anyone thinking about objecting. With the right-wing militias empowered, there is no telling how much violence will erupt. This is what I will call Chaos I (yes, there is a Chaos II, read on!) Chaos I won't last long. DT will easily win. Once the main troublemakers are dealt with, the rest of the population will be easily subdued since the extreme selfishness that has been nurtured over the last few decades by our consumer culture has produced a mostly compliant, complacent society. They’ll be sucking their thumbs.
 
DT invokes Insurrection Act. Probability: 0.90
 
In the meantime, DT's plan to dismantle the deep state will be in full swing. Ethical federal employees will quit in protest, and those that remain will pledge their loyalty to DT to save their jobs. All the agencies are now willing to do DT's bidding. His justice department will take care of any major internal threats. Liberal politicians will stand on the sidelines with their hands on their hips scolding, "you can't do this", as he bulldozes his way through the power structure, the constution, and the rule of law. He has immunity, remember? 
 
DT dismantles the "Deep State": Probability 0.90
 
In the aftermath of the insurrection, and along with the "get rid of non-profits you don't like" act, which will pass the Senate by this time, it will be very easy for DT to label whomever he wants as a "terrorist organization" and ban activities that violate the right wing agenda: climate groups, Black Lives Matter, LGBTQ groups, animal rights organizations, etc. He will make the argument that the very act of questioning DT's vision for America is unpatriotic, unamerican, and a threat to society. Those who he doesn't manage to jail on bogus charges will be taken care of, one way or another, by the militias, which are still operating with DT's blessing. Meanwhile, rich progressives are still fleeing the country, and everyone else either supports what is being done or looks away. They'll think: "Why make a fuss? The lunatic left is merely overreacting." They'll think: "Why make a fuss? I deserve that vacation I had planned! This chaos has got to end one way or another. I just want things to go back to normal." 
 
DT destroys free speech. Probability: 0.90
 
It will be unnecessary to silence the free press, since they will silence themselves. The corporate media structure that we presently have is not in the business of comforting the afflicted and afflicting the comfortable, they are in the business of being too comfortable to be afflicted. They will kiss up to the power structure without a fight. Anyone who wants to know what's really going on (WRGO) will not be able to find out. However, most of the people who care about WRGO will be jailed or otherwise silenced. People who don't care about WRGO will continue to spread misinformation and conspiracy theories and will occupy themselves with vacuous entertainment. AI will make this even easier. It will not be clear what the truth is unless you see it with your own eyes or hear it from a trusted friend. If the truth is unknowable, why even bother to find out WRGO?
 
A self-imposed media blackout. Probability: 0.90
 
It is unclear what will happen to the economy during this period. It seems like it will be in a tailspin. Now, this problem could really damage DT's plans. He'll have to do something to keep the rabble pacified during these turbulent times while he consolidates his power. Perhaps Elon will cut every loyalist a check. They'll be promised future prosperity. He'll explain that he needs some time to get the problematic people out of the way. They'll be patient and understanding. "Pull yourself up by your bootstraps, folks, and trust DT! A little austerity will build character."
 
Some form of cash assistance will be handed out to keep the "rabble" pacified. Probability: 0.50
 
The proposal to replace the income tax with all tariff system to raise government revenue will be implemented quickly. It will enjoy wide support from the American people. It is unclear how the economy will respond. I have a feeling, however, that the worst-case scenarios that have been presented by economists will not occur. The hand-outs will ease the pain while the conversion is in process. Deals will be made.
 
The all-tariff system will be launched early. Probability 0.90
 
It works better than people predicted. Probability: 0.40
 
In the meantime, the tech sector, led by Vice President Vance, co-president Musk and co-dependent Zuckerburg (and perhaps Bezos and others), will be enjoying a moment. All their wildest dreams will be coming true. Government contracts will be flowing like hot honey. Full automation of the military will be at the top of the agenda since an unquestioning military will help to keep DT in power. Second on the agenda will be helping big corporations automate their operations. This will also be embraced by most Americans since it will be presented as America ingenuity and innovation at work. It will be sold as "efficiency". It will be said that all this great stuff will be "made in America", and maybe some of it will be. Everyone will benefit! There may be a short manufacturing boom. DT's supporters will be shouting, "See? We told you so. This is what happens when you get all the mother hens out to the way and let the real men take over."
 
Of course, all of this is temporary. The long-term objective is to make the average person obsolete.
 
A major uptick in manufacturing and automation occurs due to massive investment by the government. Probability: 0.60
 
The evangelicals, at this time will not have any real power. DT will continue to stroke them and promise them things. They will be asked to handle any charity that will be required to keep people calm. They will play a bigger role later.  Read on!
 
DT pats evangelicals on the head. Probability: 0.60.
 
Since I'm feeling very gloomy at this point, I need to introduce some potential stumbling blocks for the RWTA. These may arise during the early phase and derail all the plans enumerated above:
 
1. Infighting: RWTA will not happen if the people in power simply cannot get along. This is very likely to happen since most of DT's appointees are power hungry egoists like him. While incompetence is beneficial to the centralization of power in the executive branch, in-fighting is not. When it comes to the failure of the plan, this is our best hope.
 
2. Global events: While DT's rise will not be stopped by the rule of law, it may be thwarted by unpredictable events. Globally, DT will be busy pissing off our allies and aligning himself with our adversaries.  The global trajectory away from democracy and towards oligarchy will continue and DT will be in full support. Still, there are too many moving parts to make any predictions. A wider war in the middle east, for example, could completely change things depending on how we respond.
 
3. Mother Nature: Another factor could seriously undermine DT's plans: climate change. Since anyone who is not a denier has been silenced by this time, and all the real scientists at NOAA have quit or been dismissed, the explanation for increasing climate related catastrophes will need to be carefully crafted.  Even so, too many disasters could seriously disrupt a smooth trajectory. With oil production in full swing, the consequences of climate change will only get worse.  
 
4.  The human spirit. Sometimes, it surprises us.
 
Now, let's get back to the business of predictions. It is late 2025.
 

Phase II Predictions: Nov 2025- Nov 2026

I'm going to make a prediction that nobody saw coming: DT drops dead. Whether he dies naturally from too much McDonalds food or he is assassinated by insiders or outsiders is an open question. One thing is certain: his death will give him even more power. In fact, he will have more power in death than he did in life. The phenomenon of "not speaking ill of the dead" will be magnified 100-fold. He will be a legend, a hero, a savior. The greatest man who ever lived. Now, anyone who utters a bad word about DT will not be tolerated. 
 
DT will die sometime in late 2025. Probability 0.50.
 
DT dies as some point. Probability: 1.00
 
DT is irreplaceable. But, although his death may seem like a problem, it will be a net positive for the RWTA. It will be ideal, in fact. Unpredictable and erractic DT is a liability to those with more meticulous minds. Now, they can have their cake and eat it too! They can ride the allure of Trump without having to tolerate his insanity. JD Vance, who has been groomed by the techno-monarchists and who thinks women should have babies for the state, will now be in power. While DT has basically ignored the evangelicals up until this point, Vance will embrace them in order to help spread his message of a society built on the traditional family. He'll have other jobs for them,  too. Read on!
 
Following Trump's death, Vance will start to promote traditional family values with the help of evangelicals. Probability: 0.70
 
At this time, schools will be a major target for "reform". There won't be much need for a top down approach to this other than retiring the Department of Education (which has already been done). This will mostly be a grassroots effort led by local zealots and cheered on by the Vance administration. This project will be heavily influenced if not led by the evangelicals. Gradually, the school curriculum will be converted over to the right-wing agenda. There will be local opposition, but it will mostly fail.
 
School "reform" will be a major campaign at this time conducted mainly at the grassroots level. Probability: 0.70
 
By now we may be approaching the midterms. The economy is more stable as the chaos has subsided. Democrats have not managed to forge an identity and have nothing to offer. A combination of poor messaging, splintering, violent suppression, and right-wing propaganda have defeated them. All their best ideas have been discredited. Narrowing the wealth gap and forging a future where all people have their basic needs met? That's communism! Building community instead of nurturing selfishness? That's communism! Producing a sustainable, nature-based future? That's overregulation! Compassion? That's impractical! Human rights? That's what creates disorder, destroys families and ultimately leads to crime!
 
The left becomes a shell of its former self. Probability 0.80
 
The right, in the meantime, has gained massive strength.  The media organizations are doling out propaganda like a piñata.  Any truly abominable activities are not exposed because nobody knows WRGO.  People are generally pleased with the results thus far. Any economic hardship will be dismissed as growing pains. Gaining even more power, the churches will step in to ease the suffering.
 
Right wing support continues to be strong and even grows. Probability 0.90
 
It is now the midterms. There will be a non-blue wave, or a great red wave, however you want to look at it.  After the midterms, the Vance administration will continue to be relatively free of congressional oversight.
 
The left will lose even more power at the midterms. Probability 0.60.
 

Phase III Predictions: Nov 2026 - Nov 2028

Safe for two years, it is now time for some serious action. Everything that happened up until now was simply clearing the land so that the real construction can begin. The social programs that keep people from feeling too much pain, so far, have not been touched. Now is the time. Social programs will be dramatically cut in the name of "government efficiency". People will be advised to seek help from the churches who will gladly lap them up.

 
The attack on social programs won't really occur until after the midterms. Probability: 0.50
 
The great suffering caused by gutting social programs will be a sucker punch to average Americans. They will be angry. However, at this point, who cares? In fact, the pissing off the average American is part of the plan.  They won't be able to touch the greedy cabal that has taken the reins of power and is now just fully intent on keeping it. Since the public has no sense of WRGO, the power structure will easily avoid blame. Americans will take their anger out on one another. Now it is time for Chaos II. The reaction to Chaos II will be this: Let the games begin!
 
Chaos II ensues sometime after the midterms and the administration will do nothing. Probability 0.6
 
The second half of the ghost of DT's administration will be a readjustment of the economy. It is important to note that this would have eventually occurred even without the RWTA. The RWTA will just bring it about faster.
 
Here is the situation: the gradual loss of jobs to massive automation cannot coexist with capitalism. How can a society that relies on consumers to buy goods continue if people don't have jobs? True progressives would've had a good answer to this problem: the basic minimum income (BMI). However, since progressivism is dead there is nobody around to sell this idea to the public and the DT camp would never consider such a "communist" idea. Besides, they do not care about the livelihoods of average people. Deep down, they believe in the Atlas Shrugged philosophy. Workers are now obsolete, why keep them around? May the strongest survive. Who the strongest are will be is anyone's guess. I suppose it will consist of the current one percent and anyone that can prove themselves useful to the one percent. Oh, and people with lots of guns.
 
Eventually, they will have children, of course (it will be their duty). Naturally, these will be the best, most beautiful people in society. No euthanasia necessary to produce a master race. No concentration camps. Americans will kill one another and the rich will be insulated from it.  And there you have it:
 
Pigs (check): The uber rich led by Vance and co.
 
Dogs (check): The automated military and the deputized militias.
 
Sheep (check): The compliant public.
 
The readjustment of the economy begins somewhere in late 2027. It will continue for as long as it takes. Probability: 0.90.
 
So, by the time 2028 rolls around, there may be an election, but it won't be a real one. As DT promised: nobody will have to vote again.
 
No real election in 2028. Probability: 0.50
 

Epilogue: 

After the RWTA is complete, there is no telling how long it will last. It would be  incorrect to say that the right has won. Social experiments come and go and there is always a backlash. However, they will have succeeded in completely destroying America as we know it.

My more cynical self thinks that maybe it is just what we needed. Maybe the government had become too large and dysfunctional. 

It's too bad, however, that the people who are bringing on this change are doing it for themselves and not for the greater good of the country. I wanted change, too. But I would have preferred a more compassionate approach. I would have preferred working towards a sustainable future with nature and human health at the center. Nature and human health will be the biggest losers in this story. Truth and justice will also lose. So will authenticity. The main winners will be greed, destruction and illusion. 

 
So, there you have it, my predictions for the next four years. This is what happens when you grant greedy billionaire sociopaths unchecked power.

 
Oh, one last prediction. Since I plan to resist during Chaos I, I will be either dead or jailed by the end of 2025. Probability: 0.99.  So, somebody else will have to check these predictions and see if they come to pass. 

Unrenowned Artist Interviewed by Phony Magazine

 

Kurtz, an imaginary journalist who has never been employed by Repent Harlequin, a contemporary art magazine that doesn't exist, sat down with Lara Samuels, a junk artist who does exist but nobody has ever heard of, to discuss her work. 

Run-on sentences are fine, now, by the way.

 

Kurtz: Good morning, Lara. Since you are completely unknown, why don't you take a moment to introduce yourself?

Lara: Okay. First, I want to thank the thoroughly fake magazine Repent Harlequin for providing me with the contrived opportunity to discuss my work, which I never get to do because nobody cares.

Kurtz: It's our pleasure.

Lara: Artistically, I would say I work in the world of assemblage and essence. I like to make things with shapes and colors, in other words. I also like to juxtapose nature with trash that I pick up on the road. For example, I build terrariums that contain actual plants, but also junk, like lightbulbs and scissors. My sculptures gather dust and cobwebs which may or may not be a feature of the art. It may just reflect my poor housekeeping skills. I'm up to date on my tetanus shots, in case you're worried.

Kurtz: It does sound dangerous. Lots of potential sharp edges and dirt.

Lara: Yes, also I burn myself with hot glue a lot.

Kurtz: Sharp edges and hot glue seem like the perfect description of your latest work "Wasps' Nest Hot-glued to Chicken Feet."  Could you enlighten us as to the origin of this piece?

 Lara: Yes, of course. Thank you for your kind words. The piece began when my clumsy boyfriend knocked a ceramic chicken sculpture that we both cherished onto the floor and broke it. My world has not been the same ever since.

Kurtz: I see. So, as tragic as this event appears to have been for you, you have channeled these emotions positively into art.

Lara: Not really, Kurtz. It was more about the serendipitous unity of the shapes. I had found this wasps' nest that was almost the same shape as the broken part of the chicken sculpture and so I glued them together. It has not made me feel any better about my loss.

Kurtz: You say that you were inspired by Comedian, a piece created by the artist Maurizio Cattelan. It features a banana taped to a wall.

Lara: Inspired? Well, in a way, I guess. I just thought his sculpture really sucked and I could do better.

Kurtz: Oh, I see. It is pure competition that drove you.

Lara: Yes. You know how competitive artists are. It's basically a throw down.  Now, let's just do an item to item comparison, shall we? His organic feature is a banana, mine is a wasps' nest. Mine won't rot, his will. Also, wasps' nests are not cultivated at the expense of natural habitat and bananas are. On the other hand, hot glue is just as bad for the environment as duct tape, so we are equal there, but chicken feet are much more interesting than a wall. There you have it. Three wins for me and one tie.

Kurtz: But bananas are nutritionally superior.

Lara: That's what you claim.

Kurtz: Okay, here's another win for him: his sold for 6.2 million at auction.

Lara: I'm going to get 6.3 million for mine.

Kurtz: Really? That seems far fetched considering you are completely unknown. 

Lara: I won't be after this interview. 

Kurtz: Okay, here's another comparison. Cattelan has said that his piece is not a joke. It is a "sincere commentary and a reflection on what we value." Could you comment as to the significance of your piece?

Lara: He said that?

Kurtz: Yes.

Lara. Well, I thought my piece was a satire of a satire, but what you say, here, changes everything. I'm just going to take your word for it that he said that. In that case, my piece is also a sincere commentary and reflection on what we value.

Kurtz: Could you elaborate?

Lara: Sure. We are wrecking nature, the purest form of art there is, by raping the earth in the interest of making a few people super rich.

Kurtz: That may be true, but how does the sculpture speak to that theme?

Lara: It's chickens vs. wasps, dummy. Chickens are not nature, they are livestock. Wasps are extremely important ecologically, but we like to kill them. Chickens are damaging to the environment, and we worship them. Well, now that I think about it, we like to kill them, too. Anyway, they are certainly an extension of humanity's greed. In my sculpture, greed and nature are equally balanced. They appear to be tangled in a ferocious battle. But the choices we make over the next few years could tilt us either direction. That's why the sculpture is unstable. Just like the banana sculpture. Duct tape doesn't hold up forever, you know. Mine will last longer, that much is clear.

Kurtz: Since you are so obviously concerned about the biodiversity crisis and opposed to greed, as reflected in your sculpture, will the 6.3 million dollars go to a good cause? Perhaps conservation?

Lara: Well, I thought about that, Kurtz, but then I realized that it might be a turn off for people. You know, what we think of as a "good cause" has totally changed.  Selfishness is totally in, environmental stewardship? BORING. So, instead the 6.3 million I am going to get for this sculpture will go directly into my pocket and I will become disgustingly rich!

Kurtz: I see. What will you do with the money?

Lara: I'll do what all disgustingly rich people do! I'll destroy lots of habitat by building several ostentatious and ridiculously huge houses, increase my consumption of fossil fuels, make myself incredibly attractive by slathering poisons all over my body, and buy stupid art work. Stuff like that.

Kurtz: What about drugs?

Lara: Of course. How could I forget the drugs? That's where most of it will go. How else will I cope with the guilt resulting from my flagrant usurpation of my values? I mean when I guess I could use my totally unearned wealth to make the world a better place. It'll be hard. I'll need drugs. 

Kurtz: Finally, your sculpture is absurd. Do you agree?

Lara: Well, Kurtz, we live in absurd times.

Kurtz: Thank you, Lara. To see more of Lara Samuels's junk sculptures go to her house. She'll dust them off for you. Or maybe she won't.

We, With Nothing to Lose

 Like many people, I recently took a short vacation from the news. I wasn’t crying, at least not all the time. I simply needed a break after a long and tumultuous fight.  I was writing in my journal, listening to music, enjoying nature, and doing art. I entertained the notion of extending the vacation for the next four years, but I knew my curiosity and desire to connect with the world would overwhelm me. It was time to go back.

I opened my laptop. In the search bar I typed resistance to Trump.  

The initial results at the top of the page baffled me. “The resistance is not coming to save you” proclaimed one headline, “the resistance is flaccid” asserted another. And, finally, “the resistance is dead”

“Wow”, I thought, “the resistance was pronounced dead almost as fast as America elected a demented, sociopathic liar to serve in the highest office of the land."

I decided this couldn’t possibly be true.  I scrolled further down in search of something more satisfying.   I read through one article on the new Democrat resistance strategy; It was called “playing nice”.  I read another that explained how the editor of Scientific American dared to call Trump voters nasty names. Then, she apologized and resigned. I was incredulous.

“Haven’t you people learned anything from this election cycle?” I hollered, as the effects of ten days of relaxation medicine quickly dissipated. “If you say something offensive and cruel, double down. Apologies are for the weak. Niceness is for losers.”

I was unraveling. I needed a remedy fast: something tried and true that never fails to soothe me. Trump is unhinged I typed. I found a few articles, but the results were two weeks old. I slammed my laptop shut.

“Strap in, America” I thought, “Now everyone is just riding the Trump express train to hell.”

 I sat for a while drumming my fingers on the table. The doom curtain descended like it was the end of the show. Then, a meek but reassuring thought peaked out from underneath it.

The thought went something like this: maybe the resistance is only dead for the rich and powerful: the corporate media and liberal aristocrats who benefit from the status quo. It’s possible that the resistance is not dead for those of us at the bottom: those of us with nothing to lose. After all, not every broke person voted for a fascist menace just to save a few bucks. In fact, there are quite a few of us who didn't. We can run a resistance.

I whipped out some scrap paper and started to plan.  What seemed nice is that the corporate elites, too busy using their tongues to lick jackboots, couldn’t tell me how to go about it. I felt I had permission to think out side of the box. Let’s build the resistance by being ourselves, I wrote: radical, I know. 

Let me explain. In my frequent encounters with Trumpers during the weeks leading up to the election, I heard many excuses for why he was the man. But here is something I heard often: Harris is phony. Trump is real.  What came out of his mouth seemed to matter less than his willingness to say it.

But, you see, we can do that, too. If it’s not what we say, but how we say it, then let’s say the things that we truly believe. Let’s say them forcefully. Let’s say them crassly, even. We’re the mommy party, folks, let’s embrace it. A mommy can be bold and indelicate. A mommy is not always polite.

Look, we tried to be like the republicans, and we lost. We tried to show them how macho we are, and they saw right through it. We adopted their issues: guns, law and order, the border, the price of bacon. We did trot out a few of our favorite topics this election cycle, but the republicans overwhelmingly set the agenda.

So, let’s use this opportunity to launch the resistance around our core values: compassion, human health and the environment. Our planet is in deep trouble. Climate change is not being addressed. Nature is disappearing. Cancer rates are soaring. Plastics are filling up the oceans. We are poisoning ourselves. Our death care system is a mess. Anxiety, depression and loneliness are afflicting our youth.  We are selfish and disconnected from our communities. Corporate greed is rife. The rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer.

Harris called us the “party of the future”, but she only had it half right. We are the party of one possible future: a sustainable future with nature, health, and compassion at its core. A future where selfishness and greed are not the organizing principles of our society. Call the republicans out for what they are: a party that wants to keep destroying our life support system and our communities to make a few people disgustingly rich.

But our current leaders, I’m sorry to say, are not going to get us there. First, they are benefiting from the status quo. They have no incentive to change it.  Second, even if we keep them, they will only join the resistance if they feel their power dwindling. Only we can make them change.

We, with nothing to lose.